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welcome back foreign policySitRep! This is our last special live event at the Munich Security Conference (MSC). Thank you for your company. We will resume our normally scheduled programming this Thursday.
Here’s a look at the day’s happenings: Europe braces for the threat of a wider conflict with Russia, the U.S. Senate is optimistic about releasing stalled U.S. military aid to Ukraine, and another NATO ally’s defense spending hits 2% ‘s mark.
Ready to fight
Sunday, traditionally the last day of the MSC, is traditionally a day of drama for world leaders. On the last day of the 2023 meeting, Estonian Prime Minister Kaya Karas called on the EU to jointly purchase artillery ammunition for Ukraine. Later in the day, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell announced that the bloc would achieve this goal.
But this time, as 28 heads of government and state, 56 foreign ministers, 20 defense ministers, 36 spy chiefs and hundreds of parliamentarians from around the world packed their bags to return home, the maze of security checkpoints began. Down, it was a big announcement on Saturday that is still the talk of the town.
At a Ukraine-themed lunch on Saturday afternoon, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen made a dramatic announcement: “We in Denmark have decided to donate all our artillery to Ukraine,” she said. “I’m sorry, but the problem is not just production. There is still military equipment in Europe. It must be transferred to Ukraine.”
Frederiksen’s declaration and its implicit challenge to other European countries to step up aid to Ukraine consumed the final day of the conference and left attendees with some existential questions: Are they ready not just to help Ukraine, but Prepare to defend Europe from possible Russian attacks on NATO countries? Are democracies capable of fending off the threat of territorial-grabbing authoritarian regimes like Russian President Vladimir Putin?
Prepare for war. Frederiksen’s statement follows weeks of discussions, including in Denmark, about preparing Europe for more conflict. Denmark’s defense minister suggested that Russia could rebuild the ability to attack NATO territory within three to five years. Some officials SitRep spoke to in Munich believe Russia may be ready more quickly.
“We have no illusions that Russia will change,” Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkul told SitRep on Saturday. “[Putin’s] The goal is to show that the West is not functioning, that NATO is not functioning, that Article 5 is not functioning. This is his goal. “
Hysteria over a possible conflict with Russia has been spreading across Europe for weeks. Swedish Defense Minister General Micael Byden warned in early January that all Swedes should be mentally prepared for war – even though Sweden has for years issued pamphlets to citizens warning of total destruction by foreign powers — — went viral on TikTok and left a phone call Swedish child protection organizations’ defense lines were besieged by frightened children and teenagers.
Gen. Patrick Saunders, Britain’s top military official, warned late last month that Russia intended to “defeat our institutions and our way of life” and called on Britons to prepare for a level of mobilization not seen since World War II. Forced Downing The media at 10 Street stepped in to clarify that they would not be resuming the draft.
NATO allies are preparing for a possible Russian challenge on almost all fronts, whether it is a ground attack or a destructive cyber attack. “Russia’s goal is to be able to challenge us in every domain and at every level,” a NATO official told SitRep on Sunday. Much depends on what happens in Ukraine, but Russia has significantly increased its production of artillery shells, tanks, armored vehicles and missiles, the official said.
Production issues. They said that while Frederiksen believes most NATO allies and NATO neighbors can provide Ukraine with more weapons without increasing production, most allies still want to increase production to help Ukraine prepare for another offensive in 2024. Russia gets ready. “One of the challenges we face now is that we have a defense industrial base in Europe that can adapt to both peacetime situations and large-scale wars,” Swedish Defense Minister Pal Jonson told SitRep.
Karas, who first called on the EU to buy ammunition for Ukraine last year, is now asking the bloc to issue war bonds to help Kiev’s defense.
But, of course, it’s the same thing as attendees heard every year European leaders from Munich: We need to do more.Some analysts also dilute Frederiksen’s statement is not new in nature: Denmark said in April 2023 that it would provide 19 artillery pieces to Ukraine.
At the same time, it remains unclear what NATO allies and Europe actually need to do to prepare for a possible wider war with Russia. NATO has established its own undersea research center and officials have said they are considering further strengthening data cables and oil pipelines after cutting off the Baltic Sea Connector gas pipeline last year. Some countries are considering issuing more booklets (the Swedes have already done so) so that civilians can prepare for worst-case scenarios. The allies may even need to start building roads strong enough to carry more tanks.
“If any Russian soldiers set foot on NATO territory, we will defend every inch of it.” explain German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius made headlines at the conference when he said Ukraine must defeat Russia (more than his boss, Chancellor Olaf Scholz, said), and called on NATO allies to go beyond their commitments and spend the equivalent of 2% of funding. Defense GDP.
Democracy and dictatorship. But even as U.S. and European officials focus on Ukraine’s bright future in repelling the Russian invasion, Kyiv is frustrated that the U.S. House of Representatives, about to recess for two weeks, has not passed $60 billion in additional military aid for Ukraine, as Many Ukrainian troops are being rationed ammunition.
Ukrainians don’t think that will happen under Putin’s regime. “Please remember, dictators don’t go on vacation,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told Saturday’s meeting.
In Belarus, in northern Ukraine, the regime of Putin aide Alexander Lukashenko has launched a widespread crackdown following the country’s disputed 2020 election, and the opposition is also concerned that democracies cannot stand firm against autocrats. Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya said: “Sorry, I think dictators do not respect democracies.” explain during a group meeting late Saturday night. “Sometimes they are slow to make decisions. Sometimes they are not decisive. They are not united.”
“What are the real red lines where democracy will show its strength?” she added. “Not orange, not blue, not cyan, but [a] red line. “
on button
Which content should be your focus if you haven’t already.
One bill to rule them all. The topic of discussion, whether on stage or in whispers in the hallways, was whether a major U.S. national security funding bill that had been stalled in Congress for months would pass. The funding, which amounts to approximately $95.3 billion (of which Kyiv has over $60 billion), is critical to helping Ukraine continue its fight against Russia. In fact, the White House blamed the Republican blockade of the bill for the fall of the Ukrainian city of Avdievka to Russian forces this weekend.
We spoke with Senator Jim Risch, the top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and a supporter of the bill, about the matter and his own conversations with Zelensky at MSC. Risch said he was “cautiously optimistic” about the bill’s passage. “I told Zelensky directly,” he said.
The bill passed the Senate 70-29 and is now bogged down in the House due to procedural disagreements, stemming both from deep divisions among Republicans over Ukraine and House Speaker Mike Johnson’s concerns over the bill’s role in ensuring the U.S. Disappointed that Mexico’s border security has not been done enough. .
Ukrainians and other European allies are praying nervously.
China and Ukraine. One of the biggest “what-ifs” of the Ukraine war that keeps Western defense planners awake at night is the prospect of China more fully accepting a Russian invasion and beginning to support it militarily. China’s support for Russia has so far been limited, although its trade ties still provide a vital lifeline to Moscow.
That’s why one of the most important side events we saw this weekend took place on Saturday night, when Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba met with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi. Kuleiba’s reading of the meeting to the public was frustratingly but unsurprisingly vague. “We agreed on the need to maintain contacts between Uzbekistan and China at all levels and continue dialogue,” he said.
At the same time, Wang tried to send a cautious public message to MSC attendees about China’s position on Ukraine, but of course in a roundabout and carefully worded diplomatic way, saying that China would not “sell to conflict areas or parties to the conflict.” Lethal Weapon”.conflict” and did not “take advantage of the situation.” And he did not make explicitly mentioned Russia and China announced an “unrestricted” partnership in February 2022.
Another one crossed the line. Swedish Defense Minister Jonsson told SitRep on Saturday that the 19 NATO allies will fulfill the alliance’s commitment to spend the equivalent of 2% of GDP on defense by the end of 2024. The figure is higher than previously cited by NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg. Jonsson said NATO defense ministers addressed the issue at their latest ministerial meeting in Brussels this week. (Sweden attended the meeting as a coalition invitee.)
“When Sweden joins later, there will be 20 allies,” or 2 percent, Jonsson said. However, to achieve his goal, he will not recognize the name of the 19th ally.
Snapshot
Today’s quote
“I never imagined that a day would come when Republican senators wanted to make a deal with Putin and the Green Party chair opposed negotiations and asked for more weapons.”
—time International reporter Joerg Lau reports role reversal This year in Munich.
His statement came after U.S. Senator Vance told a conference on Sunday that even if passed, the stalled Ukraine aid package would not “fundamentally change” the reality of the war on the ground and that Russia was motivated to pursue peace negotiation. Rikar Dallan, co-leader of Germany’s Green party, countered that Putin had repeatedly shown “that he has no interest in peace at the moment.”
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