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A key milestone in creating a planet-scale digital twin of the Earth. Image credit: Brocca L et al/Frontiers
The water cycle looks simple in theory, but human influence, climate change and complex geography mean that in practice, floods and droughts remain difficult to predict. To model water on Earth, you need incredibly high-resolution data over vast areas, and modeling sophisticated enough to account for everything from snow cover on mountains to soil moisture in valleys. everything. Now, scientists have taken a big step forward by building the most detailed model yet.
“Simulating the Earth at high resolution is very complex, so basically the idea was to focus on a specific goal first,” said Dr. Luca Broca of Italy’s National Research Council, lead author of the article. scientific frontier. “This is the idea behind the digital twin case study of terrestrial water circulation in the Mediterranean basin that we developed. Our goal was to create a system that allows non-experts, including policymakers and citizens, to run interactive simulations.”
Earth’s test environment
In engineering, a digital twin is a virtual model of a physical object that can be tested for damage without causing actual damage. A digital twin of the Earth that is constantly updated with new data will allow us to simulate best and worst-case scenarios, assess risks and track the development of dangerous situations before they occur. This information is vital for sustainable development and the protection of vulnerable people.
To construct the digital twin, Broca and his colleagues used a wealth of satellite data combined with new Earth observation data measuring soil moisture, precipitation, evaporation, river flow and snow depth. These newly acquired data, crucial for the development of the model, include more frequent measurements in space and time: once per kilometer and once per hour.
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Digital Twin Earth technology can simulate the terrestrial water cycle. Image credit: Brocca L et al/Frontiers
Like a screen with more pixels, this higher-resolution data creates more detailed pictures. Scientists use this data to develop their models, which are then integrated into a cloud-based platform that can be used for simulations and visualizations. This is the end goal: interactive tools that anyone can use to map risks like floods and landslides and manage water resources.
“This project is a perfect example of synergy between cutting-edge satellite missions and the scientific community,” Broca said. “Collaborations like this, coupled with investments in computing infrastructure, are critical to managing climate change and other human impacts. “
Help people plan for the future
The scientists first modeled the Po River basin and then extended the digital twin to other areas of the Mediterranean basin. Upcoming projects are planned to be expanded to cover the whole of Europe, and future collaborations will see the same principles applied around the world.
“This story started as an initiative of the European Space Agency,” Broca said. “I say we should start with something we know very well. The Po River basin is very complex – we have the Alps, we have snow, which is very difficult to model, especially in an irregular and complex terrain like a mountain range. And then there’s “Our study covers all human activities – industry, irrigation. Then we have a river and extreme events – floods, droughts. Then we moved to the Mediterranean, which is a great place to investigate extreme events, whether water passes Too much or too little.”
The platform’s main use cases are to enhance flood and landslide predictions and optimize water resources management. For this work to work better at a more local level, more granular data and more sophisticated modeling are needed. For example, to maximize the potential of digital twins in agriculture, data resolution should be measured in tens of meters rather than hundreds of meters.
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Digital Twin Earth Hydrology Platform: Better Utilization of Water Resources and Disaster Prediction. Image credit: Brocca L et al/Frontiers
known unknowns
Other challenges remain. These include delays in transmitting satellite data to the model, the need for more ground-based observations to validate the satellite data, and the increasing complexity of the algorithms required to process the data.
Furthermore, no model is perfect and satellite data may contain errors: uncertainties must be correctly described so that users can accurately understand the reliability of the model. Brocca said artificial intelligence and machine learning will play a key role in overcoming these challenges by increasing the speed of data analysis, collection and processing, and simplifying data quality assessment.
“The combined efforts of scientists, space agencies and policymakers promise to realize a future in which a hydrological Digital Twin of the Earth provides valuable insights into sustainable water management and disaster resilience,” Broca concluded.
More information:
A digital twin of the terrestrial water cycle: a glimpse into the future through high-resolution Earth observation, scientific frontier (2024). DOI: 10.3389/fsci.2023.1190191
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