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New York, March 21, 2024 /PRNewswire/—— The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® US (LEI) grew 0.1% February 2024 It fell to 102.8 (2016 = 100) after a 0.4% decline in January.six month period between August 2023 and February 2024the LEI contracted by 2.6%, a smaller decline than the 3.8% decline in the previous six months.
“US LEI rises February 2024 for the first time since February 2022,” explain Justina Zabinska-La Monicasenior manager of business cycle indicators at The Conference Board. “Strength in manufacturing, stock prices, the Leading Credit Index™ and homebuilding workweeks drove the LEI’s first monthly increase in two years. However, consumer expectations and the ISM® New Orders Index have yet to recover, and the LEI’s 6 Monthly and 12-month growth rates remain negative. Despite gains in February, the index still shows some headwinds for future growth. The Conference Board predicts that U.S. GDP will be annualized from the second quarter to the third quarter of 2024 Growth will slow as rising consumer debt and interest rates put pressure on consumer spending.”
The Conference Board Synchronized Economic Index® US CEI (CEI) rose 0.2% February 2024 After rising 0.1% in January, it rose to 112.3 (2016=100). CEI rose 1.1% in the period to June 2019 February 2024, higher than the 0.8% in the previous six months. The CEI’s component indicators—wage employment, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales, and industrial production—are included in the data used to determine U.S. recessions. All four components of the index were positive last month, with personal income minus transfers and wage employment making the largest contributions to the index.
The Conference Board’s Lagging Economy Index® U.S. LAG rose 0.3% February 2024 After rising 0.3% in January, it rose to 118.8 (2016 = 100). LAG has gained 0.8% in the past six months August 2023 arrive February 2024after not growing for the past six months.
Comprehensive economic index summary table |
||||||||
2023 |
2024 |
6 months |
||||||
December |
January |
February |
August to February |
|||||
leading index |
103.1 |
102.7 |
102.8 |
p |
||||
% change |
-0.2 |
-0.4 |
0.1 |
-2.6 |
||||
diffusion |
45.0 |
20.0 |
70.0 |
30.0 |
||||
overlapping index |
112.0 |
r |
112.1 |
112.3 |
p |
|||
% change |
0.3 |
r |
0.1 |
r |
0.2 |
1.1 |
||
diffusion |
75.0 |
75.0 |
100.0 |
75.0 |
||||
lagging index |
118.0 |
r |
118.4 |
r |
118.8 |
p |
||
% change |
-0.5 |
r |
0.3 |
r |
0.3 |
0.8 |
||
diffusion |
21.4 |
50.0 |
64.3 |
21.4 |
||||
p preliminary r Revise C Corrected |
source: The Conference Board |
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The index in 2016 is equal to 100 |
The next version is planned for Thursday, April 18, 202410 a.m. ET.
about The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) represents the United States
Composite economic indicators are key elements in analytical systems designed to show the peaks and troughs of the business cycle. These indices are constructed to summarize and reveal the economy’s common turning points in a way that is clearer and more convincing than any single component. CEI is highly correlated with real GDP. The LEI is a predictor variable that predicts (or “leads”) business cycle turning points by approximately 7 months. Shaded areas indicate recessionary periods or economic contractions. The dates above the shaded area show the chronology of peaks and troughs in the economic cycle.
ten components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® For the United States, includes: Average weekly hours worked in manufacturing; Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance; New orders for consumer goods and materials from manufacturers; Doctrine® New Orders Index; New orders for non-defense capital goods from manufacturers (excluding aircraft orders); Building permits for new private housing units; S&P 500 Index® stock price index; leading credit index™; Interest rate spread (10-year Treasury note minus the federal funds rate); Average consumer expectations for business conditions.
To access the data, please visit: https://data-central.conference-board.org/
About The Conference Board
The Conference Board is a member-driven think tank providing trusted insights for What’s Ahead™. Founded in 1916, we are a nonpartisan, not-for-profit entity with 501(c)(3) tax-exempt status in the United States.The Conference Board
SOURCE: The Conference Board
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