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welcome to special edition foreign policySitRep! We’re in Munich, Germany, for a major international security conference attended by hundreds of world leaders, defense ministers, spy chiefs and experts.
Watch your inbox all weekend as we’ll bring you breaking news, tips and analysis from the 2024 Munich Security Conference (MSC). The real fun starts tomorrow, when heads of state and other dignitaries start arriving. But there’s a lot to be said before that happens.
Here’s what’s in store for today: The West is considering Russiaa huge potential meeting us and Chinese officials, the top questions we ask foreign leaders at the MSC and more.
The West’s Reckoning
In 2007, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a now-infamous speech at the Munich Security Conference that, in hindsight, seemed to be a harbinger of things to come.
He scoffed at the concept of a unipolar world led by “one master, one sovereignty” – an apparent reference to the United States – and said such a system was “not only unacceptable but impossible in today’s world”. He warned that NATO’s eastward expansion was “giving us new dividing lines and walls.” But if his speech was a warning of coming war, few in the West listened.
Now, 17 years later, the West is facing a reckoning with Putin – who, unsurprisingly, was not explicitly invited to this year’s conference. Despite tough words from U.S. and European leaders about standing united against Russian aggression and supporting Ukraine for as long as possible, many policymakers traveling to Munich this week were quietly concerned that the alliance was wavering.
The war in Ukraine is not going well for Russia — far from it — but for Putin, as the West’s commitment to Ukraine falters and a grim war of attrition begins to tip the scales in Moscow’s favor, Things no longer seem so bleak for Din.
How to deal with Russia and Ukraine is expected to be a key topic at this weekend’s meeting, but not the only one.
Pre-election jitters. Another topic everyone talks about is what the hell is going on in Washington. U.S. allies in Europe are uneasy at the prospect of a renewed contest between current President Joe Biden and former President Trump. Trump’s latest comments about NATO – claiming he will not defend allies who do not pay enough for their defense and essentially describing the alliance as America’s paid protection racket – provide a sense of how much is at stake in the 2024 US presidential election Europe.
Congress is dysfunctional. Then there’s the issue of a major national security funding bill that would include critical military aid to Ukraine, which has been stalled in Congress for months amid political infighting over immigration at the U.S. southern border. Whether the bill can be passed is seen as an important test of whether the United States can truly fulfill its commitments to its allies and Ukraine, and whether isolationist pressure spreads within the Republican Party.
In a sign that times have changed, U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham, a noted Russia hawk and Ukraine supporter (and frequent MSC guest), announced that he would abandon plans to travel to Munich in favor of traveling to the U.S. southern border changed.
Avoid (or try to) the next Cold War. Then there is the China issue. Europe is still grappling with whether to view China as an economic partner or a long-term geopolitical threat, and is closely watching how Washington handles its relationship with Beijing. As China hawks take off in Washington, European officials worry about falling into Cold War 2.0. The Biden team has so far worked to ease tensions with Beijing, much to the relief of many Europeans, but it is unclear how long that will last.
Our sources tell us that US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will meet China’s top foreign policy chief Wang Yi in Munich this weekend, but nothing has been officially announced yet. Watch this space.
If that’s not enough. There is also the crisis in the Middle East. European policymakers came to Munich with a real sense that the world, which had sided with Europe and the United States when it isolated Russia after the Ukrainian invasion, now sided with the United States and its European allies – due to their support for Israel in Gaza stance on military action and lost global support. We are already seeing signs that European allies are beginning to diverge from the United States over their approach to the conflict and their unwavering support for Israel – particularly as Israel prepares for a potential attack on Rafah – which adds another layer of pressure to U.S.-European relations.
Meanwhile, the Biden administration is laying the groundwork for a longer-term effort to turn the crisis into an opportunity to revise Middle East peace deals. Robbie and our colleague Amy MacKinnon reported in detail on the big deal this week. In addition to senior Biden administration officials attending the MSC, a large delegation of senior Middle Eastern officials is flying to Munich this weekend (more on that below), and U.S. officials may seek to advance the ambitious plan during the conference.
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Which content should be your focus if you haven’t already.
Who are we looking at. Big names – they’re all flocking to Munich this week.Vice President of the United States Kamala Harris and secretary of state Antony Blinken will lead the delegation.Other notable attendees scheduled to attend include Wang YiChina’s top foreign policy chief; Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Saud; Indian Foreign Minister Jaishankar; Sir Alex, Director of the British Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) Richard Moore; United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres; NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg; President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen; and a group of U.S. Senators and Representatives.
By our count, some 28 heads of government and state, 56 foreign ministers, 20 defense secretaries and 36 intelligence chiefs from around the world gathered this weekend, along with hundreds of other senior dignitaries and business executives. Needless to say, this is going to be a news-filled weekend.
What are we looking at. The invisible side of the meeting. What happens outside the public panels of such large diplomatic conferences is equally, if not more, important. The MSC has an entire team of staff dedicated to coordinating private meetings between officials and other attendees during the conference. Think of the foreign minister and the defense minister meeting the CEO, the chief of staff meeting the other chiefs of staff, that kind of thing. This is where most of the actual content of diplomacy is done.
Three major questions. Of all the questions we asked foreign ministers, military chiefs and national security experts this weekend, three were of particular concern to us.
First, what does Trump’s re-election mean for NATO and Ukraine? It’s a question on everyone’s mind, but few (especially government officials) are willing to actually document it.
Second, can Ukraine really win this war? What is victory? Sentiment over Ukraine’s prospects this year is decidedly more pessimistic than a year ago, much to Putin’s delight. Nearly every transatlantic leader will speak openly about how Ukraine must win and that NATO will continue its staunch support for the country, but they are even more reluctant to talk about what the worst-case scenario would look like and how the alliance would respond. That’s exactly what we want to know.
Third, is there a way out of the Middle East crisis? Most agree the status quo is unsustainable and the Biden team is working on a plan, but nearly everyone is skeptical it can pull it off in an election year. Meanwhile, Israel may be preparing to launch an offensive in Rafah, further exacerbating the conflict, while Houthi attacks on the strategic Red Sea route show no signs of stopping. We want to know what foreign officials really think about the prospects for Biden’s plan, and whether they have other ideas about how to de-escalate or even permanently end the conflict.
Snapshot
Turn on your radar
today: Blinken is traveling in Albania before heading to the Munich Security Conference. He and Harris will meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky over the weekend.
NATO defense ministers are meeting in Brussels today in preparation for July’s Washington summit. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva continues his two-day visit to Egypt.
Friday, February 16th: First day of the Munich Security Conference.
Saturday, February 17th: The second day of the Munich Security Conference. The two-day African Union Leaders’ Summit also started in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.
Today’s quote
“The innocence of youth is happiness; the wisdom of old age can save the West.”
—What North Dakota Republican Sen. Kevin Cramer, 63, said Characterized He voted in the Senate for the National Security Supplement, which provides funding for Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel. He was responding to comments from another senator who noted that nearly all Republican senators under the age of 55 voted against the measure.
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